Balance Rock, California 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

339
FXUS66 KHNX 082021
AFDHNX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Hanford CA
121 PM PDT Tue Oct 8 2024


&&

.KEY MESSAGES...

1. Temperatures will gradually trend cooler through the week
but will remain above average for this time of the year. There
is a 20 percent or less probability of high temperatures above
90 degrees in the San Joaquin Valley this weekend.

2. Low afternoon relative humidity will occur across many
locations along with poor to moderate overnight recoveries in
the mountains and deserts.

3. The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) 6-10 and 8-14 day
temperature outlooks show a 40 to 60 percent probability for
above average temperatures across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

The ridge of high pressure that brought us record warm
temperatures continues to persist over the interior West and
Rocky Mountains. Latest model ensembles show the ridge to
persist through the week with it gaining strength Sunday into
Monday. However, the model ensembles are also showing a
weakening trough approaching the California coastline late
Friday into early Saturday. However, there is a slight
disagreement among ensembles as to whether the trough will
dissipate or become a very weak cutoff low.

Looking at our area, we are looking at a cooling trend thanks to
the moving of the ridge and the approaching trough. Wednesday
has a 30 to 60 percent probability of high temperatures of at
least 95 degrees for most of the Valley except locations north
of Fresno including Merced. The temperatures will continue to
drop as we approach the weekend. Over the weekend we are looking
at probabilities of less than 20 percent of high temperatures of
at least 90 degrees. However, favorable conditions for fires
will continue with low afternoon humidity and poor to moderate
overnight low temperature recoveries along with mostly light
terrain driven winds.

In the long term, the CPC 6-10 and 8-14 day outlooks have a 40
to 60 percent chance of above average temperatures for the San
Joaquin Valley. The latest probabilities also have a 25 to 45
percent probability of high temperatures of at least 85 degrees
from Monday to next Wednesday.

&&


.AVIATION...
VFR conditions will prevail across the Central CA Interior over
the next 24 hours.

&&

.AIR QUALITY ISSUES...

None.

&&

.CERTAINTY...

The level of certainty for days 1 and 2 is high.
The level of certainty for days 3 through 7 is medium.

Certainty levels include low...medium...and high. Please visit
www.weather.gov/hnx/certainty.html for additional information
and/or to provide feedback.

&&

.HNX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

JPK

weather.gov/hanford